Angela Merkel defies IMF and France as anger rises over German export surplus
I tedeschi minacciano di uscire dall’euro? Benissimo, così il loro nuovo marco si rivaluterà del 40% sull’euro, e noi suoi concorrenti esporteremo di più. Oggi le industrie francesi e italiane non riescono a competere perchè vendono in euro-marco.
"Where we are strong, we will not give up our strengths just because our
exports are perhaps preferred to those of other countries," she told the
German Bundestag.
Mrs Merkel swept aside criticisms that Germany and other surplus countries are
partly to blame for the widening North-South rift that has led to Euroland’s
worst crisis since the launch of monetary union.
"The problem has to be solved from the Greek side, and everything has to be
oriented in that direction rather than thinking of hasty help that does not
achieve anything in the long run and merely weakens the euro even more," she
said.
Instead she called for EU treaty chnges so that serial violators of EMU rules
could be expelled from the euro, and insisted Germany would stick to its own
path of hairshirt austerity.
The tough words came as the IMF’s chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said it was
time for Berlin to rethink its single-minded pursuit of exports, warning
that both Germany and China need to play their part in rebalancing the
global system rather than relying on huge structural surpluses. "This must
change. Internal demand must be strengthened with more consumption," he told
the European Parliament.
French finance minister Christine Lagarde infuriated Berlin earlier this week
by suggesting that Germany’s relentlesss wage squeeze was making it
impossible for Club Med states to claw back lost competitiveness within
monetary union, forcing them into a deflation policy that must ultimately
rebound against everybody.
"Clearly Germany has done an awfully good job in the last 10 years or so
improving competitiveness. When you look at unit labour costs, they have
done a tremendous job in that respect. I’m not sure it is a sustainable
model for the long term and for the whole of the group. Clearly we need
better convergence. While we need to make an effort, it takes two to tango,"
she told the Financial Times. Mrs Lagarde said yesterday that Germany should
cut consumption tax to lift imports and help do its part to narrow the
North-South gap.
Her comments have prompted fierce criticisms in Germany. "Mrs Lagarde must
take back her outrageous assertions: jealousy should not be a factor in the
politics of European neighbours. This is the behaviour of a bad loser," said
Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of Bavaria’s Social Christians (CSU)
in the Merkel coalition.
Germany has gained some 30pc to 40pc in cost advantage against Italy and Spain
since the mid 1990s, and over 20pc against France, according to EU data.
Germany’s current account surplus is expected to reach $190bn this year, or
6pc on GDP.
The achievement is remarkable, but is also upsetting the structure of monetary
union. David Marsh, author of `The Euro: the Politics of the New Global
Currency", said the Germans never faced up to the political implications of
EMU. "They thought everybody else should become more German. You can’t blame
them for having a desire for a competitive industry and surpluses built into
their genes, but they are not thinking holistically," he said.
EMU rules are forcing Club Med states to tighten fiscal policy by 10pc of GDP
for Greece, 8pc for Spain, and 6pc for Portugal over three years without any
offsetting monetary or exchange stimulus, an unprecedented demand that may
cause such deep economic damage that it proves self-defeating in the end.
Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research said the Club Med states and
Ireland cannot deflate wages below German levels without causing havoc to
their economies, so the EU policy creates a profound bias towards a
deflationary slump for the whole system.
"The Germans are not very good at arithmetic. If they want to run surpluses
near $200bn (£130bn), others must run deficits near $200bn. It is not
appropriate that Germany’s dismal growth peformance be exported to the whole
of Europe, but that is what is going to happen," he said.
"There has been this massive self-righteousness in Germany. They have been
leeching off the demand of countries for the last decade, and now they too
are going to suffer until they change their ways. German industrial
production is down 17pc from the peak and has been flat for four months, so
Mittelstand bosses are soon going to draw the obvious conclusion and
downsize in style," he said.
Mr Dumas said the trade surplus of the German bloc of Northern states is as
great as the combined surplus of China and Asia’s tigers. They are central
players in the story of global imbalances.
Holger Schmieding, chief Europe economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch,
said attacks on Germany were deeply misguided. The country suffered a long
slump after digesting East Germany in the 1990s and was forced to retrench.
It did not take part in the global credit boom, acting as a counterweight to
excess. Once the bust began it had sufficient fiscal reserves to cushion the
shock with large stimulus measures, again acting as a bullwark of stability.
"I am still waiting hear the world say `thank you Germany’," he said.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Source > Telegraph